Thursday, February 11, 2010
Friday, January 22, 2010
USD Still Rising; Oil Plummets towards $75 a Barrel
Thursday, 21 Jan 2010 20:24:17 GMT
Today's market movements fell in line with many of today's expectations. Given the series of negative data releases from Europe over the past few weeks, not many analysts were expecting today's manufacturing and services figures to improve the situation. European data fell short of expectations, leading the EUR to continue declining against many of its major counterparts.
Full article | Forex News Archive
Afternoon Forex Update
Chinese GDP Results Lead to Dollar Gains
Thursday, 21 Jan 2010 14:10:52 GMT
The U.S. Dollar received a considerable boost in trading today, as persistent concerns regarding Greece's debt management as well as China's economic growth brought investors to the greenback. The European Commission remains adamant that no additional financial assistance will be provided to Greece. At the same time, Portugal has been warned regarding its ballooning budget deficit. EUR/USD has continued its downward trajectory and is currently trading around the 1.4075 level.
Full article | Forex News Archive
USD and JPY Continue to Rise as Stocks Decline
Thursday, 21 Jan 2010 07:43:47 GMT
American and European stocks traded lower this week due to risk aversion among traders, and this has helped support the Dollar's resurgence. With a EUR-heavy news day ahead of us, the USD may take a back-seat during the morning hours. A slew of positive releases from the Euro-Zone could allow us to see a rebound in a few of the major pairs. On the other hand, if Europe's data falls short of expectations, traders should anticipate a continuation of the bullish run in the USD.
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Monday, January 18, 2010
Having described the assumed fourth b c wave at the USD/JPY currency pair chart, the yen continued to move to the significant level of 90.55. Because of it, it is possible to expect the price uptrend and the first waves of a new cycle of the US dollar strengthening formation after probable workout. At the same time, we should pay attention on variant, according to which the US dollar will strengthen further. This possible situation development will slight change the current wave situation, which has existed since January 4 and can lead to the price sideways movement.
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Friday, December 18, 2009
First Bank of Japan meeting today after emergency meeting earlier this month. New QE measures on tap?
USD follow through stronger as FOMC makes exit strategy timetable clear. Mixed data from the US today provides little further guidance.
MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
- Australia Q4 Westpac-ACCI Industrial Trends Index improved to 50.4 vs. 55.0 expected and 48.2 in Q3
- New Zealand Q4 Westpac NZ Consumer Confidence out at 116.9 vs. 120.3 in Q3
- Sweden Nov. Unemployment Rate out at 8.0% vs. 8.2% expected and 8.1% in Oct.
- Norway Dec. Unemployment Rate out at 2.7% as expected and vs. 2.6% in Nov.
- UK Nov. Retail Sales fell -0.3% MoM and rose 3.1% YoY vs. +0.5%/+3.7% expected, respectively
- UK Dec. CBI Distributive Trades Reported Sales out at 13 vs. 19 expected and 13 in Nov.
- Canada Nov. Consumer Price Index rose +0.5% MoM and +1.0% YoY vs. +0.3/+0.8% expected, respectively
- Canada Nov. Core CPI out at +0.4% MoM and +1.5% YoY vs. +0.2/+1.3% expected, respectively
- Canada Oct. International Securities Transactions out at 5.8B vs. 6B expected and 13.3B in Sep.
- US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 480k vs. 465k expected and 473k last week
- US Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims out at 5186k vs. 5170k expected and 5181k last week
- US Nov. Leading Indicators out at +0.9% vs. +0.7% expected and +0.3% in Oct.
- US Dec. Philadelphia Fed rose to 20.4 vs. 16.0 expected and 16.7 in Nov.
THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
(All times GMT)
- US Fed's Fisher to Speak (1800)
- UK Bank of England to Release Financial Stability Report (0001)
- Japan BoJ Target Rate (no time given)
- Japan Nov. Department Store Sales (0530)
Yesterday's FOMC meeting was USD positive relative to expectations. No one was expecting any serious adjustment to the policy statement language directed at the interest rate mechanism, but the Fed's very explicit timetable on the unwinding of virtually all of its liquidity programs (the minor ones by Feb 1, the huge TALF by March 31 for most debt types, and until June 30 for CMBS') was another step on the road toward an exit strategy and effective tightening of monetary policy. At the same time, we've seen the Australian central bank tapping on the brakes and we're seeing turmoil in Europe over the situation in Greece. These events are suddenly making the USD look a bit less ugly than it was just a couple of months ago. The other key factor here has been the technical situation, as the USD powered through some important lines in the sand this morning in Europe, and now we get to see
What's priced into the USD?
Judging from the fundamental inputs, the market (USD strength) is actually beginning to overshoot relative to the interest rate differentials in places (USDCAD for example) and risk aversion is only providing a modicum of support for the move in USD strength, so for this move to extend much farther here we need to see a chunkier sell-off in risk and/or further widening of interest rate spreads. Of course, a significant driver here is likely speculative positioning that has been caught on the wrong foot, as well, which can create plenty of overshoot in the short run.
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The Strategy Team of our Daily Expert View consists of:
David KarsbølManager/Market Strategist, Saxo Bank
David Karsbøl holds a Master of Science degree (Economics) from the University of Copenhagen and has previously been employed as an insurance analyst. Mr Karsbøl works with fundamental analysis and research and contributes to Saxo Bank's strategy products. He also develops and maintains macroeconomic models and a number of trading models, which are designed to profit from co-variations between the Forex and fixed income markets. Mr Karsbøl is regularly appears on major financial news networks and comments several days a week on the financial markets via Saxo Bank's live Market Call webcast. He is a native Danish speaker and is fluent in English.
John J. HardyAsset Management, Saxo Bank
John Hardy publishes daily comments on the Forex market. Mr Hardy's analysis attempts to overlay short term technical developments and fundamental event risks with longer term themes and trends in the G-10 currencies. Mr Hardy considers inter-market correlations as paramount in understanding moves in the Forex space, so the analysis draws on a number of models based on other markets and gauges their correlation with Forex markets in an attempt to detect inefficiencies that may provide trading opportunities.